That was quite a reversal to the upside yesterday. I was expecting a little bounce but the strength of the rally was amazing - this is what Fedspeak can do.
So I think yesterday has changed things atleast for now. We tested the channel bottom again and bounced hard. This is one important thing. We also have made a lot of improvement in the internals as well.
Channel touch and bounce -
Next take a look at the MCO configuration on NYSE. Looks constructive - bottom above bottoms - still below the zero line though. I will be waiting for this to get above the zero line to set up a strong buy.
This could turn up as early as today. But lets wait and see. I will be looking for weakness even after we turn up so that I can get better buy prices.
Many other things are there. The put call ratio supports the bottom idea. Some other ratios I watch also does the same. Hurst view was to expect the 40 week low around this timeframe. Lastly seasonality also is supportive of a year end rally.
So all in all, I have to conclude yesterday's low may have been the low of this entire bear move. However I think we will get a pullback sometime today before we mount another rally attempt. And again maybe more pullback tomorrow before we get into gear on the upside. My stance is changing to bullish.
Gold rallied as well yesterday. It was a huge reversal day for the miners. While I still hold my NUGT puts, I will likely exit them today. I had a good profit on them - unfortunately I wasnt able to exit them in time. So I will likely just take what I have and close them and then wait and watch for the next entry either long or short.
I will try few intra trades today on ES. Mostly likely first down. Then up.
Best,
PM
So I think yesterday has changed things atleast for now. We tested the channel bottom again and bounced hard. This is one important thing. We also have made a lot of improvement in the internals as well.
Channel touch and bounce -
Next take a look at the MCO configuration on NYSE. Looks constructive - bottom above bottoms - still below the zero line though. I will be waiting for this to get above the zero line to set up a strong buy.
This could turn up as early as today. But lets wait and see. I will be looking for weakness even after we turn up so that I can get better buy prices.
Many other things are there. The put call ratio supports the bottom idea. Some other ratios I watch also does the same. Hurst view was to expect the 40 week low around this timeframe. Lastly seasonality also is supportive of a year end rally.
So all in all, I have to conclude yesterday's low may have been the low of this entire bear move. However I think we will get a pullback sometime today before we mount another rally attempt. And again maybe more pullback tomorrow before we get into gear on the upside. My stance is changing to bullish.
Gold rallied as well yesterday. It was a huge reversal day for the miners. While I still hold my NUGT puts, I will likely exit them today. I had a good profit on them - unfortunately I wasnt able to exit them in time. So I will likely just take what I have and close them and then wait and watch for the next entry either long or short.
I will try few intra trades today on ES. Mostly likely first down. Then up.
Best,
PM
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