A pretty good day for me yesterday. I exited all bearish positions for good profits and even managed 2 good scalps on the long side on ES futures. Overall quite happy with my bear campaign and results. Only positions I hold now are NUGT puts. This is a longer term position so I will continue holding - also as I continue to be bearish on the GOLD sector.
The butterfly position on SPX was a double. The bear spread on SPX was also almost a double. IWM and QQQ puts performed well. And I already mentioned my puts on the coal sector. Overall all did really good. My positions were mentioned in earlier posts in detail.
So big bounce yesterday. This was kind of expected once we tagged this channel I show below. It has held very strong so far this year and yesterday was no exception. This was the main reason I decided to take profits on bear positions.
Tagged the channel and rebounded but what next? I dont have skin in the game at the moment but what I feel is there is going to be more weakness - we are not going to just turn around and keep rallying from here. At best, we are going to see retests of the channel bottom over the next several days. What if this channel breaks? I think then it gets very interesting. Next support should be at around 1900 where the 200 DMA is. Breaking this will be even more bearish but lets deal with that if and when we get there.
As always, my next buy decision will be based on internals. Nothing much to say about MCO. It seems to be building a base. If we can do this over the next several days and turn back above the zero line - it will be a buy for me. Right now its far away from doing that - and I think its going to take several days in order to do this. Market should be choppy and volatile until then.
Today I will scalp on both sides as opportunity presents itself. I think we have a date with 1960-1970 on ES and then we should have a date with the lower side of the range at around 1920 ES. I dont mean to say it will all happen today - It should over the next few days though. Until we get a buy on MCO, I will continue with very short term scalping.
GOLD continues to be bearish as I mentioned above. Its the only area where I have shorts on right now. And these are longer term positions in the money right now. So I continue to hold them.
It seems to have found short term support at around this level of 1200$. Break this and earlier lows of 1180 will come in a hurry. Break that and its all the way down to 1100$ which is also my longer term target. Will it get there? Only time will tell. For now, holding shorts.
I will post updates on Hurst cycles later on the general markets. This is around the time the 40 week lows are expected.
Best,
PM
The butterfly position on SPX was a double. The bear spread on SPX was also almost a double. IWM and QQQ puts performed well. And I already mentioned my puts on the coal sector. Overall all did really good. My positions were mentioned in earlier posts in detail.
So big bounce yesterday. This was kind of expected once we tagged this channel I show below. It has held very strong so far this year and yesterday was no exception. This was the main reason I decided to take profits on bear positions.
Tagged the channel and rebounded but what next? I dont have skin in the game at the moment but what I feel is there is going to be more weakness - we are not going to just turn around and keep rallying from here. At best, we are going to see retests of the channel bottom over the next several days. What if this channel breaks? I think then it gets very interesting. Next support should be at around 1900 where the 200 DMA is. Breaking this will be even more bearish but lets deal with that if and when we get there.
As always, my next buy decision will be based on internals. Nothing much to say about MCO. It seems to be building a base. If we can do this over the next several days and turn back above the zero line - it will be a buy for me. Right now its far away from doing that - and I think its going to take several days in order to do this. Market should be choppy and volatile until then.
Today I will scalp on both sides as opportunity presents itself. I think we have a date with 1960-1970 on ES and then we should have a date with the lower side of the range at around 1920 ES. I dont mean to say it will all happen today - It should over the next few days though. Until we get a buy on MCO, I will continue with very short term scalping.
GOLD continues to be bearish as I mentioned above. Its the only area where I have shorts on right now. And these are longer term positions in the money right now. So I continue to hold them.
It seems to have found short term support at around this level of 1200$. Break this and earlier lows of 1180 will come in a hurry. Break that and its all the way down to 1100$ which is also my longer term target. Will it get there? Only time will tell. For now, holding shorts.
I will post updates on Hurst cycles later on the general markets. This is around the time the 40 week lows are expected.
Best,
PM
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