Friday, October 24, 2014

Market Journal - Oct 24th 2014

The rally continued, hit a high and started a pullback. I think the uptrend might just be over and we have started a smaller term downtrend. If we exceed yesterdays highs again, then something else might be going on. Best guess here from my side is we decline into next week into the 1900 SPX support. Not sure if we will get more than that. And we should start the next leg of the upmove from there up into 1970/80 area with an outside chance at retesting the highs. This should complete an ABC corrective from the lows.

Now this all will take time and I will reevaluate as time goes on - just wanted to lay out the bigger picture idea I have in mind.

For now - the plan is to play for a short term downtrend...may only be a few days worth.
Today's action will be critical to this plan and idea. Internals are still up and positive but look to be in topping area/overbrought.

I got an idea about shorting GPRO from a forum. Looks like a good one to try out. There is something known as a lockout period ending in December. This should bring some pressure on the stock. I am going to try to short it via a diagonal put spread with the longer leg in April of next year.

Gold is again looking tough to read. Yesterdays ebola new managed to give a little boost to it. I need more time to see where it will go.

Apart from that, I will look to open some bearish spreads today and ofcourse do the usual intraday trading. For today intraday my bias will be on the short side.

Best,
PM

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