That was quite a strong week. The big question is still - are we starting on a new uptrend to new highs and beyond? Or is this just a bounce back - a very strong one at that - before things resume to the downside.
Very tough call. But I dont see this yet as a possible move to new highs. At the same time, I dont really have much confidence right now that we are going to new lows in the SPX and other US markets.
What I think is this - Market will likely pullback a little in beginning of the week, then rally into mid week - not much - and then pull back sharply again. We should be a range for next 1-2 weeks before the selloff starts. As you can see the whole thing is quite confusing and so due to this, I am moving my focus from the SPX to other markets for now.
Oil looks very bearish - I will be building shorts there. I am already short the Gold miners - I will continue to build shorts there. Emerging markets look bad - There too having some puts looks prudent. Stock side, I have puts on GPRO, BTU, AMZN etc.
As you can see, I am shifting over from the indices to sectors. At the moment I feel this is the most prudent thing to do.
Best,
PM
Very tough call. But I dont see this yet as a possible move to new highs. At the same time, I dont really have much confidence right now that we are going to new lows in the SPX and other US markets.
What I think is this - Market will likely pullback a little in beginning of the week, then rally into mid week - not much - and then pull back sharply again. We should be a range for next 1-2 weeks before the selloff starts. As you can see the whole thing is quite confusing and so due to this, I am moving my focus from the SPX to other markets for now.
Oil looks very bearish - I will be building shorts there. I am already short the Gold miners - I will continue to build shorts there. Emerging markets look bad - There too having some puts looks prudent. Stock side, I have puts on GPRO, BTU, AMZN etc.
As you can see, I am shifting over from the indices to sectors. At the moment I feel this is the most prudent thing to do.
Best,
PM
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